Here is what I think RP will get by default (a baseline). This model was built prior to Iowa and NH. NH under-performed because the model does not take into account the significant number of independents (the false racism charges released that morning may have subtracted a full percentage point of votes as well).

Here is the most likely scenario that would give him a chance at the GOP convention:

**EDIT - Based on the comments, I fixed Wisconsin & California winner take all status, gave Wisconsin to Romney instead of McCain, added 2 more deligates to Paul from Louisiana (you better work hard there!), changed Guams delegates from Romney to McCain, and added Northern Marianas. Here is the working copy:

Using my Ron Paul projected results model (which so far has been more accurate then all of the polling posted on realclearpolitics), I have draw up a delegate route that could give Paul a chance at the GOP nomination. First, 2 assumptions:

1. Giuliani and Huckabee will give up shortly after super Tuesday. The race will be between McCain, Romney, and Paul. It would be great for Ron if Giuliani or Huckabee has a strong showing on super Tuesday (keeping the field divided), but I am going to assume they will both drop out shortly after super Tuesday.

2. Open delegates (especially former Huckabee delegates) will move towards Paul or McCain, but not Romney. This makes McCain Ron’s top target. The campaign likely recognizes this as well, being that Paul’s GOP Florida debate question was crafted to make McCain look like an idiot.

Aside from those assumptions, Paul needs most of these things to happen:

1. McCain needs to lose at least 3 of the 4: Florida, New York, New Jersey, and California. California will be the toughest, the other three are all very close.

2. Paul needs to win at least 8 or 9 or these 10 states: Alaska (possible), DC (possible), Colorado(very tough), North Dakota (tough), Texas (possible), Idaho (tough), Oregon (possible), New Mexico (possible), and Tennessee (tough). Of these, super Tuesday includes Alaska and Colorado. Paul needs a strong showing on super Tuesday with at least 1 other first place finish and at least 3 2nd place finishes in non winner takes all states.

3. Paul needs a first place in either Virginia, Wisconsin, or Indiana (all very tough for him). Depending on super Tuesday he may need to win in two of these states to have a chance.

Here is the most realistic final delegate score I could get to using those assumptions (and looking at polls):

The totals here are:

McCain: 837

Paul: 514

Romney: 410

Open: 555

Then Paul needs to dominate in the GOP convention with as few open deligates going towards McCain as possible. It is critical that states like Iowa (who voted for Huckabee) switch 100% together towards Paul. We have not seen an open GOP convention in more years then anyone alive today can remember, but I suspect many states will move together and that is good for the late momentum candidate Paul. If the campaign uses all of those $millions wisely, and if the grassroots switches to into a higher gear, Ron Paul will have a chance.

His campaign has received significant contributions from insurance/banking presidents and vice presidents (if he were still a viable candidate I’d compile a list).  For those who don’t know, he is the senate banking committee chairman and has always tried to push pro big-bank legislation through.  From Wikipedia:

The Center for Public Integrity has criticized Dodd for “being the leading advocate in the Senate on behalf of the accounting industry.”^[7][8] Political consultant and commentator Dick Morris wrote that Dodd had received more from accounting firm Arthur Andersen than any other Democrat and bore responsibility for trying to shield accounting firms from investor fraud liability in cases such as the Enron scandal.^[9]

It comes as no real surprise that he is now trying to mangle Bernakes calls for a short term fiscal stimulus package into a need to bailout the subprime mortgage investment bankers.  From Bloomberg:

Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) — Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd proposed creating a federal program to buy “very distressed” mortgages at steep discounts as part of economic stimulus legislation being developed in Congress.

Of course he spins it by talking about the poor borrowers who will be helped by a re-fi into a 30 year amortizing mortgage… but the reality is many of the subprime borrowers won’t be able to pay the 30 year amortizing payments either.

Bailing out banks, and letting some people keep their house (with a higher payment then they currently have) could be an acceptable goal. The real issue is that Dodd is pushing this through as a response to Bernakes call for short term fiscal stimulus.  This proposal may help in the medium or long term, but would do almost nothing for the economy over the next 24 months.

Fred Thompson is done:

Today I have withdrawn my candidacy for President of the United States. I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort. Jeri and I will always be grateful for the encouragement and friendship of so many wonderful people.

Eric Erickson (the guy that runs RedState) posted this:

I spoke with one of Fred’s advisors a little while ago. We should note that Fred Thompson has not and will not be endorsing any of the other candidates. My understanding is that with no strong clearly conservative person in the race, he saw no point in endorsing.

While dailykos comments are sad to see the field consolidate, but happy to see a Republican go down. From the comments:

Grandpa Fred goes back to bed - Nation’s indifference hits critical mass…. “I Can’t Believe He’s Still Talking, Says Bystander” Oh, to be a headline writer.

RonPaulForums are buzzing about the need to convert. Senior Member Rob just discovered:

Update!!!!The real Thompson forums have banned new registration due to the actions of some Ron Paul supporters!Please careful everyone! We are literally throwing away votes!

A lot of 18-25 year old males support Ron Paul. They are often aggressive and disrespectful… but thus would be the nature of any candidate that dominates youtube and most of the internet. RP forums users also posted this:

I just went to the main Fred Thompson forums upon which some of us have already descended. Their reactions are overwhelming hostile mainly because we are not being sensitive enough to the sense of loss they all feel due to their candidate dropping out. Please be very courteous and subtle when approaching Thompson supporters.

The most “offending” thread was merely a comparison of Ron Paul’s And Fred Thompson’s positions, please don’t be pushing for them to convert immediately.

A good way to do it is to apologize (yes that’s what I said) to them for Thompson leaving and then tell them that you are making yourself available to explain Paul’s candidacy and positions, but DO NOT give them information if they do not request it.

It’s time we start being diplomats, folks.

Littlegreenfootballs can be summarized by what user Britthimself said:

Damn it. Now I need to find a conservative. Oh wait the last one just left.

For those who don’t know, InTrade contracts are worth $100 if they win.  McCain contracts are currently trading at $51 each, implying the market believes he has a 51% chance to win.  I don’t have any complex deligate what-if tables that explain why I bought these, but here are some of my gut feelings on current InTrade pricing:

 I believe intrade users have a front runner bias that is not justified.  Perhaps there are a significant number of users who are buying contracts for later bragging rights to their friends down the road.   I don’t think McCain is above 50% right now as the contracts imply.

Romney: I purchased these contracts at $24 because I believe he is closer to 30 or 35 percent to win.  The Jan 20 Rasumussen poll  shows him winning Florida with a 5 point margin.  Rasmussen has the best polling track record this election season (especially in Iowa).  If Romney wins Florida (a winner takes all delegate state), I believe his 2:1 delegate lead will leave them tied for the GOP nomination. 

Edwards: I bought these contracts at $1.  For no quantifiable reason, I think he is about a 1:30 chance which makes these very profitable.  Polls and election swings are just not predictable enough to be pricing him at 1:100 (not trying to upset anyone, but I’d guess there is a 1:100 chance at an assasination attempt against one of the front runners… 1% Edwards makes no sense to me).

Paul: I bought these at $1.80.  I don’t think the expected return on these is as good as Edwards, but again I think Paul is above 55:1 to win.  One small Hickup in the McCain campaign could send many voters towards Paul.  Huckabee supporters could also find a logical fit in Paul if they could look past his foreign policy.  The crashing economy and dollar could also be a benefit to his conservative fiscal policy stance.  There is also a chance of a scared-to-lose-to-Hillary switch that could be flipped if the the “70% of the US opposed to Iraq war statistic” gets brough back to GOP discussions.  Paul has a 5 to 10 percent base in almost every state, and that alone should put him above 50:1.

The market was set to open about 6% low when Bernake dumped tens of billions of dollars on the market via lowering the fed funds rate a giant 75 bps.  The energy companies are getting hit the hardest with PetroChina down about 10%.  Berkshire Hathaway B piece stock was down nearly 15% in futures trading, but the Bernake printing press pulled it back up to a 4% loss.  Google is starting to look like an attractive buy to me, with the P/E falling to 45 (price = $572).

I believe a bad economy helps Hillary on the Democratic side and Romney on the Republican side.  Rasmussen polls have shown these two to be the leaders on the economy.  John Edwards, Fred Thompson, and Ron Paul need to put their campaigns to work to capitalize on this.  This is a final glimmering opportunity for the fringe.

General Growth, one of the largest Real Estate Investment Trusts, pushed a press release out today entitled “General Growth Responds to Recent Statements in the Press and Blogs”.  I have never heard of a company of this size issuing a press release in response to bloggers (good for us!).  The release is mostly boring stuff about how they will be able to pay their debt obligations in the face of a faultering economy, but I thought I’d quote this last part for truth.  Hopefully someone reminds me to revisist this in a year so we can see if the press passes really deserved to “get yanked”:

 Bernie Freibaum, Chief Financial Officer of General Growth, said, “we do not like to publicly respond to unwarranted and untrue allegations, but we must do it in order to protect the interests of our Company’s constituents. We wholeheartedly agree with Barry Vinocur’s reaction to this situation, which he published in his newsletter today. Mr. Vinocur is the highly regarded editor and publisher of REIT WRAP, a daily subscription service that is purchased by virtually all institutional investors in REIT stocks. Mr. Vinocur said that ‘raising the possibility… that a company might file bankruptcy–especially in today’s environment–is very serious stuff. Moreover, is there any knowledgeable individual who would suggest there’s even a remote possibility that GGP might file bankruptcy?’ ”

“Finally,” continued Bernie Freibaum, “Mr. Vinocur adds ‘that the editors signing off on this crap should have their press passes yanked.’ “

As the DailyKos is lighting fast to report, McCain Leads Rudy in New York. Big Time.   Littlegreenfootball posts have been quiet on this, as they dislike McCain for his perceived half measures on immigration and the constitution. Many of the lgf comments revolve around hopes that Giuliani will become VP and some are even considering voting Democrat:

I am not sure who scares me more, Clinton or McCain. Probably McCain.

They are very similar in domestic policy, but McCain is obvious psychopath.
Plus McCain reminds me Sharon, “bulldozer”. ans we all know how much harm old “bulldozer”, that consider himself always right can do.

I pray I will not have a choice between two Democrats in November, McCain and …

By the way, I am a registered Republican, so does having essentially two
Democrats on the ballot in November disqualify me from voting?
Just asking.

The New York poll shows: McCain: 36%, Giuliani 24% (down from 48% 1 mo ago), Romney 10%.  Here are the lessons I believe we will have learned when looking back at this primary cycle:

1. The early states really do hold a lot of power.  Giuliani decided to focus on later states and as of right now he looks crushed.  McCain was polling in 5th or 6th place before his surprise 3rd in Iowa.

2. Howard Dean, now Ron Paul.  The one constant is that young people are still not voting.  Ron Paul has dominance on digg/youtube/online polls/forums, but it hasn’t really mattered.  This has translated to a measely 1% bump (over main stream polls) in actual primary votes.

3. Fox News is a powerful propaganda tool.  They are negative towards Romney, Giuliani, Edwards, and Obama.  Romney can’t beat the McCain & Fox combo nor can Obama beat Hillary & Fox combo. For as much as pundits are claiming the Republican nomination is wide open, McCain is above 50% on intrade and if they believe that they would put their money where their mouth is.