Here is what I think RP will get by default (a baseline). This model was built prior to Iowa and NH. NH under-performed because the model does not take into account the significant number of independents (the false racism charges released that morning may have subtracted a full percentage point of votes as well).

Here is the most likely scenario that would give him a chance at the GOP convention:

**EDIT - Based on the comments, I fixed Wisconsin & California winner take all status, gave Wisconsin to Romney instead of McCain, added 2 more deligates to Paul from Louisiana (you better work hard there!), changed Guams delegates from Romney to McCain, and added Northern Marianas. Here is the working copy:

Using my Ron Paul projected results model (which so far has been more accurate then all of the polling posted on realclearpolitics), I have draw up a delegate route that could give Paul a chance at the GOP nomination. First, 2 assumptions:

1. Giuliani and Huckabee will give up shortly after super Tuesday. The race will be between McCain, Romney, and Paul. It would be great for Ron if Giuliani or Huckabee has a strong showing on super Tuesday (keeping the field divided), but I am going to assume they will both drop out shortly after super Tuesday.

2. Open delegates (especially former Huckabee delegates) will move towards Paul or McCain, but not Romney. This makes McCain Ron’s top target. The campaign likely recognizes this as well, being that Paul’s GOP Florida debate question was crafted to make McCain look like an idiot.

Aside from those assumptions, Paul needs most of these things to happen:

1. McCain needs to lose at least 3 of the 4: Florida, New York, New Jersey, and California. California will be the toughest, the other three are all very close.

2. Paul needs to win at least 8 or 9 or these 10 states: Alaska (possible), DC (possible), Colorado(very tough), North Dakota (tough), Texas (possible), Idaho (tough), Oregon (possible), New Mexico (possible), and Tennessee (tough). Of these, super Tuesday includes Alaska and Colorado. Paul needs a strong showing on super Tuesday with at least 1 other first place finish and at least 3 2nd place finishes in non winner takes all states.

3. Paul needs a first place in either Virginia, Wisconsin, or Indiana (all very tough for him). Depending on super Tuesday he may need to win in two of these states to have a chance.

Here is the most realistic final delegate score I could get to using those assumptions (and looking at polls):

The totals here are:

McCain: 837

Paul: 514

Romney: 410

Open: 555

Then Paul needs to dominate in the GOP convention with as few open deligates going towards McCain as possible. It is critical that states like Iowa (who voted for Huckabee) switch 100% together towards Paul. We have not seen an open GOP convention in more years then anyone alive today can remember, but I suspect many states will move together and that is good for the late momentum candidate Paul. If the campaign uses all of those $millions wisely, and if the grassroots switches to into a higher gear, Ron Paul will have a chance.

Fred Thompson is done:

Today I have withdrawn my candidacy for President of the United States. I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort. Jeri and I will always be grateful for the encouragement and friendship of so many wonderful people.

Eric Erickson (the guy that runs RedState) posted this:

I spoke with one of Fred’s advisors a little while ago. We should note that Fred Thompson has not and will not be endorsing any of the other candidates. My understanding is that with no strong clearly conservative person in the race, he saw no point in endorsing.

While dailykos comments are sad to see the field consolidate, but happy to see a Republican go down. From the comments:

Grandpa Fred goes back to bed - Nation’s indifference hits critical mass…. “I Can’t Believe He’s Still Talking, Says Bystander” Oh, to be a headline writer.

RonPaulForums are buzzing about the need to convert. Senior Member Rob just discovered:

Update!!!!The real Thompson forums have banned new registration due to the actions of some Ron Paul supporters!Please careful everyone! We are literally throwing away votes!

A lot of 18-25 year old males support Ron Paul. They are often aggressive and disrespectful… but thus would be the nature of any candidate that dominates youtube and most of the internet. RP forums users also posted this:

I just went to the main Fred Thompson forums upon which some of us have already descended. Their reactions are overwhelming hostile mainly because we are not being sensitive enough to the sense of loss they all feel due to their candidate dropping out. Please be very courteous and subtle when approaching Thompson supporters.

The most “offending” thread was merely a comparison of Ron Paul’s And Fred Thompson’s positions, please don’t be pushing for them to convert immediately.

A good way to do it is to apologize (yes that’s what I said) to them for Thompson leaving and then tell them that you are making yourself available to explain Paul’s candidacy and positions, but DO NOT give them information if they do not request it.

It’s time we start being diplomats, folks.

Littlegreenfootballs can be summarized by what user Britthimself said:

Damn it. Now I need to find a conservative. Oh wait the last one just left.

For those who don’t know, InTrade contracts are worth $100 if they win.  McCain contracts are currently trading at $51 each, implying the market believes he has a 51% chance to win.  I don’t have any complex deligate what-if tables that explain why I bought these, but here are some of my gut feelings on current InTrade pricing:

 I believe intrade users have a front runner bias that is not justified.  Perhaps there are a significant number of users who are buying contracts for later bragging rights to their friends down the road.   I don’t think McCain is above 50% right now as the contracts imply.

Romney: I purchased these contracts at $24 because I believe he is closer to 30 or 35 percent to win.  The Jan 20 Rasumussen poll  shows him winning Florida with a 5 point margin.  Rasmussen has the best polling track record this election season (especially in Iowa).  If Romney wins Florida (a winner takes all delegate state), I believe his 2:1 delegate lead will leave them tied for the GOP nomination. 

Edwards: I bought these contracts at $1.  For no quantifiable reason, I think he is about a 1:30 chance which makes these very profitable.  Polls and election swings are just not predictable enough to be pricing him at 1:100 (not trying to upset anyone, but I’d guess there is a 1:100 chance at an assasination attempt against one of the front runners… 1% Edwards makes no sense to me).

Paul: I bought these at $1.80.  I don’t think the expected return on these is as good as Edwards, but again I think Paul is above 55:1 to win.  One small Hickup in the McCain campaign could send many voters towards Paul.  Huckabee supporters could also find a logical fit in Paul if they could look past his foreign policy.  The crashing economy and dollar could also be a benefit to his conservative fiscal policy stance.  There is also a chance of a scared-to-lose-to-Hillary switch that could be flipped if the the “70% of the US opposed to Iraq war statistic” gets brough back to GOP discussions.  Paul has a 5 to 10 percent base in almost every state, and that alone should put him above 50:1.

As the DailyKos is lighting fast to report, McCain Leads Rudy in New York. Big Time.   Littlegreenfootball posts have been quiet on this, as they dislike McCain for his perceived half measures on immigration and the constitution. Many of the lgf comments revolve around hopes that Giuliani will become VP and some are even considering voting Democrat:

I am not sure who scares me more, Clinton or McCain. Probably McCain.

They are very similar in domestic policy, but McCain is obvious psychopath.
Plus McCain reminds me Sharon, “bulldozer”. ans we all know how much harm old “bulldozer”, that consider himself always right can do.

I pray I will not have a choice between two Democrats in November, McCain and …

By the way, I am a registered Republican, so does having essentially two
Democrats on the ballot in November disqualify me from voting?
Just asking.

The New York poll shows: McCain: 36%, Giuliani 24% (down from 48% 1 mo ago), Romney 10%.  Here are the lessons I believe we will have learned when looking back at this primary cycle:

1. The early states really do hold a lot of power.  Giuliani decided to focus on later states and as of right now he looks crushed.  McCain was polling in 5th or 6th place before his surprise 3rd in Iowa.

2. Howard Dean, now Ron Paul.  The one constant is that young people are still not voting.  Ron Paul has dominance on digg/youtube/online polls/forums, but it hasn’t really mattered.  This has translated to a measely 1% bump (over main stream polls) in actual primary votes.

3. Fox News is a powerful propaganda tool.  They are negative towards Romney, Giuliani, Edwards, and Obama.  Romney can’t beat the McCain & Fox combo nor can Obama beat Hillary & Fox combo. For as much as pundits are claiming the Republican nomination is wide open, McCain is above 50% on intrade and if they believe that they would put their money where their mouth is.

This is the spreadsheet I made after the Iowa and New Hampshire results were in.  It is weighted based on:

1. 18-35 year old male population (per capita)

2. RonPaul2008.com donors (per capita) 

3. State score on PledgeForPaul.com

The 2 items I would also like to add (but don’t have the data for) are meetup group sizes and libertarian party members.  After plugging in the South Carolina and Michigan data, I think this model is holding up pretty well.  South Carolina had less votes then expected while Michigan had more then expected.  The largest error so far is Nevada, which had a 3.5% higher then expected turnout.  Las Vegas is the #7 biggest group on meetup, so taking into account meetup group sizes may have put this projection more in line with reality.

EDIT - There was an error in the per capita donor data feed… I updated all of these values (today is a money bomb day and aside from the data feed being reversed, these per capita donation levels significantly changed in 5 hours).  Here is the revision… I’ll update again after Florida:

Excel Sheet: http://www.mediafire.com/?dzrzdzxv4jt